Closing the Primerica Experiment

One year ago I embarked on a mission to determine whether Primerica stock (PRI) was a better investment then the sum of its’ parts – well at least most of the parts.  SEC filings were scoured to identify their investments as insurance companies are required to maintain reserves (the float).  A portfolio was established (3Q 2015) , funded (4Q 2015) and tracked (Oct 2015 to Sep 2016) to be able to declare a winner.

And the winner is … Primerica by 16.15%.  Now I realize that a single snapshot in time may not be reflective of reality, but to my surprise Primerica outperformed the basket through this snapshot in time.

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Rolling Unabridged Update #2

The second month of the Rolling Unabridged Monthly Portfolio (RUMP) is in the books with the results posted a few days ago.  A few were added, a couple removed and one renamed (Mr Free at 33).  No major surprises revealed themselves while the update cycle settled into the 6-9 month desired lag.  Following are the highlights, findings, questions and issues identified round.

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The Most Wonderful Time

Alright, with apologies to Andy Williams maybe the second, but as we turn the corner and head into the final quarter it’s a good feeling to have exceeded the 2015 full year dividend payments with a bunch of 2016 left.  Last year, Wonderful Day was September 9th.  This year it was October 4th with Kimberly-Clark’s dividend.  The three week difference is a reflection of the growing portfolio.  A compression would be indicative of a fund withdrawal -a not too unusual event in the distribution phase.

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Must Be Merger Monday

Just when I thought M&A activity was winding down for the year, Janus Capital announced today they were merging with Henderson Group plc.  The new entity will be called Janus Henderson Global Investors with Headquarters in London.  The combined company will apply for a primary listing in New York, keeping Henderson’s Australian listing (HGG.AX) but delisting in London.  Terms of the deal will provide Janus shareholders with 4.719 shares of the new company for each share held and is expected to complete 2Q 2017.

So it appears the rumored consolidation in the money manager space has begun.  For those unfamiliar, Janus is where Bill Gross set up shop following his departure from Pimco.

I like the synergies – the only issue I have being a twice per year rather than quarterly dividend.  But I was looking to enter a UK stock (with sterling being weak) so it appears one is landing squarely into my portfolio.

 

Sep 2016 Update

Last month saw the commencement of the Congressional take on the ‘bully pulpit’ with first Heather Bresch (Mylan (MYL)/EpiPen) then John Stumpf (WFC) called on the carpet.  One would think Heather would have been smart enough to avoid taking the same path blazed so brilliantly by Martin Shkreli (Turing/Valeant (VRX) fame).  Her show was overshadowed by the even greedier Wells Fargo with John either portrayed as ‘asleep at the wheel’ or a criminal mastermind.  Wouldn’t life be interesting if Congress actually did anything other than use hearings to frame media sound bites?  The S&P was basically flat for the month ending down 0.12%.  My portfolio was basically flat as well, ending up 0.04%.  This increases my lead for the year to 11.88% with one quarter left to go.

Headlines impacting my portfolio:

  • 9/1 – CHD 2:1 stock split
  • 9/2 – Ireland to appeal EU anti-AAPL tax ruling
  • 9/6 – ENB to acquire SE
  • 9/12 – AGU/POT reach merger agreement
  • 9/19 – REITs officially become their own sector
  • 9/26 – YUM spin set at 1:1 YUMC for 10/31
  • 9/29 – Supreme Court agrees to hear credit card surcharge case
  •           – PNY/DUK merger approved, closing set for 10/3

Blog Updates:

I’m a little behind this month but the portfolio data has been compiled and will be posted in the next couple of days with the goals update later in the week.  The Unabridged portfolio should be next week as per normal.

Portfolio Updates:

  • FMBH replaced FCLF due to merger
  • Added to TOWN – this ‘makes whole’ this holding following my sale of MNRK prior to the merger.  (didn’t want to hold TOWN across two accounts)
  • Added to AROW prior to ex-div for the stock dividend (shares added Sept 29)
  • Added to SBUX

All were funded by dividends with no ‘new cash’ deployed.  New cash was deployed for the  annual funding of the trust I manage (skip generation).  The trust is excluded from my DGI portfolio and WFC is this year’s addition.  This is only the second time I’ve duplicated one of my holdings – the other being DIS.  The other trust holdings are GIS, HSY, PG, WMT, WGL, UNP, KHC and TXN.

Dividends:

  • September delivered an increase of 24.7% over September 2015.  This was due about evenly between dividend increases (Y/Y) and late 2015 funding.
  • September was up 4.4% from the prior quarter.
  • Announced dividend increases currently average 12.91% with 63.09% of my portfolio having at least one raise so far this year.
  • Through September, dividends received were equal to 95.7% of all 2015 dividends, keeping me on pace to exceed last year’s total -now estimated to be October 4th (as compared to 2015 being Sept. 9th).

With the cash from PNY/DUK, I’ll be looking to redeploy primarily into existing Jan/Apr/Jul/Oct payers within my portfolio with no new positions expected.  Losing PNY and the expected loss of LSBG (another merger) will leave about a 5.07% hole in my January dividend receipts unless I act now.

Spinoffs:

The YUM spin has been set for Oct 31st with YUMC to begin trading Nov 1st.  I don’t think the XRX spin date and ratio have been set.