Generally I refrain from back-to-back posts with similar topics but decided to make an exception this week as the moving parts have kicked into high gear. My post last week addressed my uneasiness with cryptocurrency as well as my interest in the underlying blockchain technology. It appears that my view has some support as two blockchain ETFs debuted on January 17th (BLOK and BLCN) and one January 25th (LEGR). This should be followed by KOIN next week. Horizons and Harvest (HBLK) also have ETF applications pending. Grenadier penned a piece on Seeking Alpha that did some analysis on the first two. Four of LEGR’s top five holdings are included in either one or both of the originals so it will probably be similar. David Snowball highlights this sentiment in his piece There’s no idea so dumb that it won’t attract a dozen ETFs stating, “…there are no publicly traded companies that specialize in blockchain; there are mostly companies with a dozen other lines of business that have some sort of efforts going into blockchain.” This is 100% correct.
In a recent conversation with a friend of mine, the topic of cryptocurrency arose as he has started accepting Bitcoin in his business. Though more enamored over the possibilities of wealth through hoarding and/or trading, he began to look under the hood to figure out why I had a greater fondness for Blockchain over any cryptocurrency. His insight surprised me: “You’re like the sluice box salesman in the California Gold Rush.”
I choose to think of myself as a shortstop hitting singles rather than a home run hitter going for the fence, but his analogy was apt. I prefer to get a slice of many transactions as opposed to getting the big one. I play the percentages. He was able to visualize I place a greater value on the tools (mining), transport (exchanges) and utility (ancillary applications) rather than the commodity itself. Meaning, I’d rather sell the Levi’s than look for (and mine) the gold vein.
It appears the revisions to the tax plan being discussed will be slightly less draconian than previously announced resulting in a little lead time for portfolio adjustments. My guess (pure speculation) is the first half of 2018 will be relatively good but a little choppy. The last half I suspect we’ll be seeing a weaker dollar, a little uptick in inflation and minimal tangible results from the administration’s policies. Anyway, an emphasis on appreciation over dividends in a rising tax environment may result in tax deferral possibilities. This belief is the basis for next years’ strategy as subsequently outlined.
- Continuation of the primary portfolio strategy in regards to moving closer to the defined target allocations. One example of this was my first December purchase, KMB which is an Anchor holding of mine.
- With the tax bill still in an uncertain status, load the maximum allowable contribution to the IRA. These funds have been allocated and will be moved by month end. A small Canadian holding in my taxable account has been identified as my new IRA purchase which will probably be made in January (pre ex-div). A by-product of this will be a temporary overweight status in this issue. Since I don’t like redundant holdings across accounts, my smaller taxable holding will be sold post ex-div. This should shield more income from taxation (under current tax).
- Implemented (December 14th) my side strategy for 2018 titled Sluice Box which is a reference to the Gold Rush days. This represents about 1% of the portfolio and was created (and bought) in my Motif account (shameless plug). The emphasis is on Bitcoin, Blockchain, Growth and my first Swiss stocks with a couple of beaten down issues thrown in.
My 2018 strategy research began in earnest when I encountered Fortune magazines’ November 1st article, In Search Of ‘Vital’ Companies. Of the fifty companies listed, my selection process drilled into the dividend payers – albeit at low yields. Then on November 7th, Investor Place published The 10 Best Growth Stocks You Can Buy Now. I chose to ignore The Dividend Guy’s August 23rd launch of Dividend Growth Rocks as I tend to shy away from paid sites particularly when operated by one person with multiple pseudonyms. Besides, only one of his selections (Nordson – NDSN) was either not owned already or replicated in the other analyses.
Once the data was combined, I removed issues already owned and ones I had no inclination to buy. Basically I had to be convinced of the opportunity and that the price (subjective argument) remained reasonable.
The following table presents my 2018 picks and the primary reason. All but one are dividend payers and I front-loaded my purchase to 2017 to ensure receipt of CME’s special dividend (ex-div Dec 28).
|SLUICE BOX (Motif: 2018 Growth)|
|NVIDIA Corporation (1,2)||NVDA||7.30%||0.32%||Bitcoin chipset|
|CME Group Inc||CME||7.30%||1.76%||Bitcoin Futures|
|Cboe Global Markets Inc||CBOE||6.70%||0.86%||Bitcoin Futures|
|Intercontinental Ex. (1)||ICE||6.80%||1.14%||Coinbase investor|
|Microsoft Corp. (2)||MSFT||6.80%||1.98%||Blockchain (Azure, Ethereum)|
|JPMorgan Chase & Co. (2)||JPM||6.80%||2.68%||Blockchain (hyper ledger)|
|Veritex Holdings Inc||VBTX||5.90%||0.00%||emerging growth co. (JOBS Act)|
|Ottawa Bancorp, Inc.||OTTW||6.10%||1.10%||2-step conversion (growth)|
|Newell Brands Inc||NWL||6.50%||3.02%||Brands|
|Energizer Holdings Inc||ENR||6.50%||2.44%||Brands|
|Cognizant Technology (1)||CTSH||6.50%||0.84%||Future 50|
|Intuit Inc. (1)||INTU||6.70%||1.00%||Future 50|
|Novartis AG (ADR)||NVS||6.70%||3.21%||possible Alcon spin|
|ABB Ltd (ADR)||ABB||6.70%||2.91%||purchased a GE segment|
- Future 50 (also currently own: MA, V)
- Investor Place 10 (also currently own: V, SQ)
- Other Bitcoin/Blockchain indirect investments include: GS, IBM, WU, AMTD
At the very least it will be interesting to observe the Crypto phenomenon in more of a supporting role. I also need to acknowledge Dividend Diplomats whose research on NWL was enlightening.
March brought us the longest DOW losing streak in five and a half years on the heels of the first legislative defeat of the Trump administration. The talking heads then moved their focus to the “end of the earnings recession”. Frankly, I think as long as the US dollar remains strong, earnings will continue to suffer – except for domestically focused companies. As a leading indicator to this thesis, I would point to the slowing growth in dividend increases as a proxy. Regardless, the S&P closed the month down .04% while my portfolio rebounded ending the month up 3.3%. At the end of the first quarter, I lead the S&P by 1.35%.
Headlines impacting my portfolio:
- 3/1 – SQ buys OrderAhead (pvt)
- 3/6 – FMBI acquires Premier Asset Mgmt, LLC
- 3/9 – BR acquires Message Automation, Ltd.
- 3/13 – BUSE acquiring MDLM
- 3/16 – MMM acquiring Scott Safety from JCI
- 3/16 – Fed lowers barriers for <$100B bank mergers
- 3/20 – UL reviewing sale of spreads line
- 3/23 – BLK buys 5% stake in NTDOY
- 3/27 – BLL sells paint can line to BWAY Holding
- 3/27 – DST buys remaining UK JVs from STT
- 3/27 – SGBK to merge with HOMB
- 3/28 – KO and KOF close on AdeS line purchase from UL
- 3/29 – MA acquires NuData Security
- 3/30 – CM increases offer for PVTB
- Added to BCE
- Added to SQ
- Added to KO
- Added to TD
- Initiated position in AKO.B
- March delivered an increase of 9.15% over March 2016. 2.24% of this increase is attributable to purchases with the remaining 97.76% a result of dividend increases. The Y/Y comparison is a little distorted as four companies shifted pay dates and one special dividend did not reoccur.
- March had an increase of 6.44% over the prior quarter. This was primarily due to a pay date shift as a result of a merger.
- Declared dividend increases averaged 7.75% with 36.42% of my portfolio delivering at least one raise (1 cut – YUM).
- YTD Dividends received were 27.1% of total 2016 dividends. If the current run rate is maintained would exceed 2016 around October 15th – particularly with most of my semi-annual or interim/final cycles paying during the next quarter.
The MET spin (Brighthouse Financial – BHF) remains pending.
Agrium/POT, JNS/HGG.L and SGBK.HOMB remain pending
One year ago I embarked on a mission to determine whether Primerica stock (PRI) was a better investment then the sum of its’ parts – well at least most of the parts. SEC filings were scoured to identify their investments as insurance companies are required to maintain reserves (the float). A portfolio was established (3Q 2015) , funded (4Q 2015) and tracked (Oct 2015 to Sep 2016) to be able to declare a winner.
And the winner is … Primerica by 16.15%. Now I realize that a single snapshot in time may not be reflective of reality, but to my surprise Primerica outperformed the basket through this snapshot in time.
Yes, I know you want me to get to the end of year results and 2016 goals already. Those will be my next two posts. Promise.
Meanwhile, it’s time for a review of the first quarter of my Primerica analysis. Here’s my initial write up. On Christmas Eve, I used my remaining free cash to purchase this group of companies. I did make a few changes to the original selection: