For Your Reading Pleasure

Every so often I update my directory omitting inactive or defunct blogs and generally get a feel for what the temperature is in the worlds I frequent less often.  This exercise was all the more telling in the general mood within the community.  One example being Young Dividend‘s monthly recap in which he notes, “Although the portfolio value fell, it is interesting to see that the dividend growth graph of my portfolio continues to climb upwards.“.  In a nutshell that is the reason we choose DGI.  Another analysis on staying the course comes from Time In The Market.  Points I like to keep in mind when the markets are volatile.  My friend Tom over at Dividends Diversify scooped my original thought for the week with his Can You Save Money at a Farmer’s Market piece.  My focus was on the Community Kitchens used by many of these vendors.  That concept will be fleshed out  further and arrive at some future point in time.

All good reads which I encourage you to partake.


Not to beat a dead horse, but I’ll  touch a bit more on Bank OZK which was one of last week’s topics.  Turns out The Dividend Guy featured this stock on his podcast the day before its precipitous drop.  To his credit he published a mea culpa on which the Seeking Alpha version received mixed reviews.  In my view, his laser focus on the dividend growth blinded his peripheral vision.  Not looking a little harder under the hood, so to speak.  Wolf Richter‘s  piece on the potential asset bubble in Commercial Real Estate (CRE) can highlight reasons a broader view is warranted at times.


Since I mentioned Wolf Street, a couple of additional articles grabbing my attention (including the comments) were, Why I think the Ugly October in Stocks Is Just a Preamble with a compelling argument and What Truckers & Railroads Are Saying About the US Economy.

Full disclosure: Long CASS whose data is the basis for his article.

As we come into the final week of the month, though my portfolio is down my dividends are up for the month, quarter and year.  The only suspense being the magnitude of increase!

 

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Gamblin’ Man

Lord, I was born a gamblin’ man

David Pratter (parody of Allman Brothers Ramblin’ Man)

I’m not sure what it is about October that causes some vicious swings in the market but this year remained true to form.   When viewed through the prism of percentages the two day drop was merely a blip,  for newer investors I’m sure it was gut wrenching all the same.  While the President was quick to cast blame on the Fed,  this is the same man  that was quick to criticize the Fed for keeping rates artificially low.  Others cast the net a little wider to include trade tensions with China.  Kind of like saying , “Look at the man in the mirror first!”  We don’t have to look any further than PPG’s pre-announcement to identify the culprits: Accelerating raw materials and transportation costs, slowing China demand, weakening auto paint demand and a stronger US dollar.  I wouldn’t be surprised if additional surprises are in store as more companies announce.

What does surprise me a little is the fact that costs like PPG is incurring has not yet worked into the CPI or PPI numbers yet.    One pundit mentioned inventories were being drained so the full increase will be felt in the future – unless a China agreement is on the short-term horizon.  Perhaps …

I was able to capitalize on the rout a little on Thursday by adding to seven positions – notably the foreign ETFs along with BOKF and CL.  Unless markets go haywire again, I have only one more purchase on tap for this month.

To come full circle to the title of this post, our friend Jim Cramer is in the process of releasing his selections for 2019.  He’s doing this in the format of Power Rankings which is a unique approach but one I wouldn’t touch with a ten foot pole.  The reason: there is already an embedded mindset of investing being a form of gambling.  Cramer says, “we’re rolling out power rankings for each sector of the stock market, just like how gamblers use power rankings to gauge the strength of football teams”.  Hmm … but I will keep an eye on these selections.  Mysteriously they stopped after three sectors were released, perhaps related to the market selloff?  All I can say is during week 1, 11 of his 15 selections were under water … so what was advertised as a one week rollout is now on hold?  Perhaps market conditions weren’t conducive for his track record?  Any way, more to come on this front I’m sure 🙂

Some Random Meanderings

Now that I’ve presented my 2019 game plan and my positioning moves planned for the last quarter, the time is ripe to see the strategies embraced by others.   First off the blocks was Credit Suisse with a projection of an 11% upside with some volatility.  I can’t disagree with the answer but question the methodology.  Their belief is the rise will mainly be on the backs of investors willing to pay up for quality (margin expansion).  My belief is that it will be riding the back of productivity increases as a result of the tax plan.  At least we both recognize that the Y/Y EPS growth rate is generally not sustainable.

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Crazy Free

I decided to pause my 3Rs series to review one particular event of this past week.  No, not the political spectrum (guilty pleas/verdicts in the US and a new PM in Australia) but the bloodbath incurred in the discount broker space following JP Morgan’s announcement of the commencement of a free trade platform.  In the event you missed it, the Tuesday morning market shudder (per Seeking Alpha) was:

Online brokers slump in premarket trading after JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) says it’s introducing a mobile investing app bundled with free or discounted trades.

TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ:AMTD) slides 6.5%, Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) -4.9%,  E*Trade (NASDAQ:ETFC-4.5%, Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ:IBKR-3.5%.

JPMorgan +0.7% in premarket trading.

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Organize – or not

It appears the current theme is organization.  I had to chuckle a little at Dividend Portfolio’s post as I could be the poster boy for his conundrum.   Although finding an elegant solution, I have to side with Mr Robot when he says, “Seems like a nifty feature. I’m afraid I can’t use it since I’m use the free version hosted on wordpress.”  Good old WordPress …   Me?  I have my directory in a Google Sheet and a couple of times per year I go through it all to ensure they aren’t not too stale.  The sites I personally frequent go on my front page allowing for ease of access.  I rotate these out periodically.  Cumbersome? A little.  But functional and the price is right.

Then I caught Mike’s post on decluttering his watchlist.  Now here I am, two for two.  It appears that Mike is ahead in the game since he completed his mission.  In a logical manner, no less.  There is one corner of my desk allocated to notepads.  Obviously I’m a serial procrastinator as several of these have been here for awhile.  Some I’ve entered into a spreadsheet.  Others I’ve discarded.  The remnants I’m still trying to figure out why I thought an idea was good to begin with.  Maybe by Christmas I’ll have the corner cleared.

Then there is always an outlier in the mix.  I could only shake my head the process detailed by Indian Value Investor.  He must have been an overachiever at an early age.  I have to admit he has me beat.  Hands down.  I think I made it through 30 or so reports this year, cross referencing maybe one.  I have, however, spent the better part of this week researching one question – scouring SEC filings, press releases and earnings call transcripts to find the answer.  Indeed the answer was found but only after the markets were closed.  At least that’s one idea I can execute next week.

As with investing styles there is certainly no ‘one-size fits-all’ in the DGI world when it comes to community, review and research.  And that is the beauty of it.

Next question: How much longer can I delay cleaning out the garage?  🙂

 

Moral Investing

Making the headlines this past week was the atrocious scene along our border.  Being an event driven investor, I had to at least take a look at the situation to – at a minimum – determine my exposure and whether strategy adjustments are  necessary.

I’m not a prude by any stretch of the imagination but (outside of ETFs) have never invested in tobacco stocks.  I have minimal exposure to wine and spirits.  While I’m not casting aspersions on those that do, I figure there are more than enough alternatives that better fit my preferences.

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