Show Me The Money!

politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other.”

Oscar Ameringer 1870-1943

With apologies to the cast of Jerry Maguire, this post is not about sports – unless politics  is now the national pastime.  This post is only peripherally related to the forthcoming election by virtue of the cash.  Period.  Today is not about Purple, Red or Blue – but Green.

Last week I mentioned that any sales of my banks were on hold pending a study which I have now completed.  The common denominator in any US election is fundraising.  The Federal Election Commission lays out the rules of the game, one of which is that cash must be held in one (or more) domestic financial institutions.  For a multitude of reasons (mostly tax related), most campaign advisors recommend placement in a non-interest bearing account.  (Exceptions are rampant – particularly among PACs, but we’ll assume otherwise for simplicity’s sake).

In the current environment, low or no-cost money is key to profitability.  Once critical mass is attained, the spread between cost of funds and the amount earned can be significant.  Three ready sources (that I’m aware of) exist – HSA/FSA accounts (covered previously), state and local tax accounts (still looking for a data source) and political money.

The main problems with political money are additional reporting requirements and stickiness.  A media buy can pull thousands (or millions) of dollars from an account in short order – which could be problematic for many smaller banks.  That said, I kind of had to wonder if the PE ratio noted by Lanny of Peoples United (PBCT) is attributable in part to the fact it was of two used by the Bernie Sanders campaign.  Or perhaps it is an offset to one of my banks’ heavy leverage to the oil patch (BOKF).

Political money is quite often invested in brokered CDs (ensuring FDIC insurance), Treasuries and other low risk and therefore low-yielding investments.  One such bank, Amalgamated (AMAL) reported (March 2020) $774.8m in political deposits (campaigns, PACs, and state and national party committees) with a net interest margin of 3.46%.  All that is required is a decent algorithm to ensure liquidity as the candidates spend their money.

As I was identifying which banks to retain in a post-Motif world, figured it might be enlightening to identify if there was a Republican alternative to the Democratic Amalgamated?  The amount of blatant hypocrisy embedded in the money?  Preconceived notions that were pierced?

I identified 842 campaign accounts reported to the FEC.  116 candidates had no report on file – pretty evenly split between parties.  One of the reasons is explained in this article.  115 of the accounts were held at non-public institutions (private banks, mutual societies or Credit Unions).  For the purpose of this analysis, both categories were ignored with one exception.  66 institutions had the account of only one candidate which were also ignored (except for the self-reporting piece) as they were generally banks in the state or district of the candidate.

The first exception was the answer to Question #1  – a Republican alternative to AMAL.  The answer is an unqualified yes, although Chain Bridge Bank is a closely held (not publicly traded) corporation.  It probably played the spread a little better than AMAL by investing in Treasuries last year, locking in then higher rates.  I identified 42 Republican accounts  held at Chain Bridge versus 88 Democratic at AMAL.  Some Republican accounts of note (at Chain Bridge) include: John Cornyn (TX), Tom Cotton (AR), Lindsey Graham (SC), Joshua Hawley (MO), Rand Paul (KY), the Republican National Committee and one Donald J. Trump.  Notable Democratic accounts at AMAL include: Richard Durbin (IL), Kamala Harris (CA), John Lewis (GA), AOC (NY), Bernie Sanders (VT), Elizabeth Warren (MA), the Democratic National Committee and Joe Biden.

As far as hypocrisy goes, in politics it’s second nature and there’s little difference with the money.  While Democrats seem to thrive keeping Wells Fargo’s feet to the fire after multiple misdeeds over the years, apparently they aren’t severe enough to warrant fellow House Financial Services Committee members David Scott (GA) and Madeleine Dean (PA) to move their accounts or other notable Dems such as Timothy Kaine (VA) or Ted Lieu (CA) either.   Republican’s aren’t immune from hypocrisy either.  Consider the President’s America First campaign.  Apparently Brian Bavin (TX), Richard Shelby (AL) – both BBVA, Glenn Grothman (WI – BMO), Devin Nunes (CA – MUFG) , Ken Calvert (CA – RY) and John Cornyn (TX – UBS) all consider repatriating profits to other countries (Spain, Canada, Japan and Switzerland) the path to making America Great Again.  Moving along …

Let’s talk of my biases – things I had presumed accurate with little basis for the assumption.  Things like Zions Bancorp (ZION) based in Utah would have a conservative political bent.  In fact, 75% of their political accounts are Democratic.  Or the International Bank of Commerce (IBOC) with their CEO an ardent Trump supporter headquartered in a border town with both their political accounts being Democratic.  Or First Republic (FRC) that had some interesting – if not questionable – dealings with Trump associates entrusted by two Democrats. So much for preconceived notions …

The top ten publicly traded banks holding political campaign money are (# of accounts):

Bank of America Corp BAC 115
Amalgamated Bank AMAL 89
Wells Fargo & Co WFC 87
Truist Financial Corp TFC 81
PNC Financial Services Group Inc PNC 23
Citigroup Inc C 19
JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM 17
Eagle Bancorp, Inc. EGBN 14
Cadence Bancorp CADE 13
Capital One Financial Corp. COF 13

If I were to wager a guess, Amalgamated and Chain Bridge have the number of accounts to move the needle a little where the others either don’t have the critical mass or their sheer size dwarfs any impact to earnings.

I currently own AMAL, BAC, BANF, BMO, BOKF, C, CBSH, CFR, CHCO, CMA, FFIC, FHN, FMBH, HOMB, HTH, IBOC, JPM, KEY, ONB, PB, PBCT, PNC, RY, TD, UMBF, USB, VLY and WFC all with varying degrees of campaign funds.

The Bull Is Dead

Another brutal week in the markets at large as the long running bull market officially died.  It is perhaps fitting it came to an end under the watch of the only president that I can recall that used the stock market as a barometer of his economic prowess.  Perhaps had his team treated the outbreak seriously a little sooner he could have been viewed as managing the outbreak’s severity on the economy as opposed to now being managed by the situation.

The world as we knew it has – at least temporarily – come to an end.  Sports, leisure activities, schools and large gatherings are suspended and working from home is back in vogue.  While the House passed a bill for an initial stop gap measure, Trump finally did declare a national emergency – perhaps bruised by the bad press.  Not helping matters was the meme tweeted by his own staff.

The pace of news related to local and corporate responses to the virus  has been fast moving, one example being the NCAA tournament being changed to an event without fans to outright cancellation.  My initial thought for this week’s topic was how the economic impact of this one event’s lack of fans would impact local economies.  Scratch that research line – but I will share that the play-in game had an average impact to the Dayton economy of roughly $4.7 million, including ticket sales, lodging, restaurants and air travel.  Concession sales benefited Pepsi (PEP), Kroger (KR) and Anheuser-Busch (BUD) as well as a local charity. Airlines serving Dayton are Allegiant Air (ALGT), American (AA), Delta (DAL) and United (UAL).  Arena sponsors (priceless advertising) include Fifth Third Bank (FITB) and Cincinnati Bell (CBB).  Extrapolate that across the other thirteen, larger, multi-day sites and the picture becomes uglier.  Extrapolate further across the overall US economy and all of the events, services and venues potentially impacted and one can easily see why recession worries are on the rise.

One aspect I find troubling in this evolving situation is the confirmation by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that the administration was considering emergency assistance for affected industries. “This is not a bailout. This is considering providing certain things for certain industries. Airlines, hotels, cruise lines”.  Ignoring the semantics over the ‘bailout’ definition, airlines are perhaps understandable. Hotels, less so due to their existing leverage. But taxpayer money going to cruise lines? Methinks the administration has yet another unforced error looming on the horizon.  

Consider the optics:Royal Caribbean (RCL), Norwegian (NCLH) and MSC are incorporated in Liberia, Bermuda and Switzerland respectively, making them foriegn companies.  Even Carnival (CCL) is not immune having a dual US and UK corporate structure. Adding insult to injury: Only one ship (Norwegian’s MS Pride of America) is US flagged.  All others are flagged Bahamas, Panama or Malta.  While the Jones Act can be cited as the cause – thereby itself needing revisions, my belief, perhaps unfounded, is that these companies use this as an excuse to lawfully circumvent US Labor laws.  Cha-ching!

Another item easily overlooked last week was the Fed’s injection of liquidity into the system.  The rumor mill has been working overtime on this one but the general consensus is that hedge funds and private equity firms have been urging their portfolio companies to draw down their lines of credit – proving once again that cash is king especially in uncertain times.  In the event that the epidemic is little more than an economic blip, this could be considered prudent – essentially, no harm, no foul while generating some income for the banks. The problem I see is if the perception of a bungled operation is allowed to become a reality resulting in greater harm to the economy.

The general investing blogging community has finally awakened to the fact that there’s more than just noise as I’m seeing more posts on the Coronavirus topic.  Other than the drop in portfolio value all else is normal on this front. The dividends keep coming. Overall they are growing with only one cut to report. I was watching with unusual attention the results from my two Hong Kong companies as the virus is literally on their doorstep.  Both cited Coronavirus and the protests as headwinds being dealt with. One (Swire Pacific – SWRAY) maintained last year’s dividend rate while the other (MTR Corp – MTCPY) surprised me with a 2.5% increase. The common denominator being both had retained earnings and lines of credit as a backstop.  Over the next quarter, I believe the number of US companies drawing down their LOCs could be a leading indicator of the direction that this is going, i.e., is the worst behind us or yet to come? Meanwhile, I am selectively averaging down – last week was Australia’s Computershare (CMSQY) and Canada’s Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD).

As always, thoughts/comments are welcome!

Dazed and Confused

Which is my state of mind this week. For the most part earnings reports arrived with a caveat – Coronavirus impact to arrive at a future point in time. And the markets generally rose as the can got kicked down the road. So I too moved on to more mundane matters, like:

This is So Wrong!

There comes a time when ones’ sanity is legitimately questioned.  Such a time occurred this past week when reading what I thought was a recent post by the Conservative Income Investor.  Note the publish date of February 3. 2020. While reading this I felt a little like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day while saying over and over this is so wrong.  The root of my disagreement was the section: It pays no dividend. It does one thing especially well: Compound the retained profits, which in this case is all of the profits because the company pays no dividend, at a rate of 15% per year. Over the past ten years, the profits compounded at a rate of 18% per year. The book value has grown by 21% annually.  I mean are we talking about the same SF I added to my portfolio in 2018?  The one that raised this non-dividend by 25% last year? Determined to correct this egregious oversight, I found myself stymied by the inability to leave a comment – which was deactivated.  Perplexed, it was only then I found the small print, “Originally posted 2015-02-26 21:35:26”.  Fact of the matter is they initiated a modern day dividend policy September 15, 2017 – subsequent to the original post.  Fact of the matter is Conservative Income Investor regurgitated the original without regard to updating an environment that changed, leaving me – and who knows how many other readers (if knowledgeable) – in a Twilight Zone scenario.

Up, Up and Away …

The meteoric performance of Tesla has to leave one scratching their heads a little.  Granted, it has finally started to perform as a company rather than a performer in Elon’s three ring circus and recent China results have been favorable – pre Coronavirus.  My assumption had been a significant portion of the rise was a result of a short squeeze as it was one of the most shorted stocks. But this may not be the case as a convergence of factors could be at play.  Like their fourth quarter profit – although largely overlooked is the reason (sale of $133 million worth of regulatory credits to other automakers). It is possible that the corner has been turned though. Then there’s the rise of ESG which you know has become mainstream when Blackrock’s on board.  Perhaps it’s an old-fashioned bubble as millennials flocked to the stock on the SoFi platform. I guess Warren Buffett’s advice is best followed here … “Never invest in a business you cannot understand.”  In this case, I don’t understand the fundamentals at play.

Rounding Down?

I did confirm something I had long suspected.  It is the rare occurrence that I hold the same issue in different accounts but the move of my Canadian stocks from my taxable account to my IRA temporarily accomplished that for at least one dividend payment:

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)
    Schwab – $0.56 (USD)
    Motif – $0.5534 (USD)

Now the reasons could legitimately be either 1) Rounding on the exchange rate, 2) Rounding on the applied payment, 3) FX rate when applied, rounding on the handoff between platforms (BK/Motif) or 5) a combination thereof.  

It’s not worth my time to figure out why as I realize the differences are minimal.  But extrapolating a little, these fractional cents on 100 shares would result in an annual difference of $2.64 (assuming a constant exchange rate) which will go into my pocket once the conversion is complete.  Just another little tidbit to assist in keeping the snowball rolling!

Note: This anomaly has only been identified with foreign issues, not domestic

Conundrum of the Week

Last, a side note on ESG investing.  On my to-do list is to develop a framework or mission statement on my strategy.  This is difficult at best on both the macro and micro levels. Will it be a hard core approach or more a negative screening?  Will it acknowledge incremental improvement or pursue a scorched earth policy? Will it recognize that some suspect companies do not profit directly from the market unless possibly through a secondary offering?  Can one be both a contributor and a destroyer?

I present these questions as food for thought as the answers become increasingly murkier as the popularity of ESG increases.

And here’s to your week ahead!

2019 Year End Report

Looking back at last years’ End Of Year post, the concerns raised at that point all remain valid.  I have to admit that even with the evils of tariffs, rising deficits and US dollar strength the economy remained surprisingly strong.  I did nail one right – the administration’s claim that GDP growth can outpace the deficit was wrong. If it can’t be done when the economy is hitting on all cylinders – the question becomes ‘when can it?’

For the month, the S&P index rose 2.73% and my portfolio (excluding October and November purchases) rose 4.26%.  When those purchases are included, the monthly increase was 10.51%. Yes my gain would have been larger had I re-invested the dividends throughout the year but at least I was fully in the market during the last quarter run-up.  For the year the S&P rose 30.43% (depending on how it’s calculated) the best year since 2013. My Portfolio rose 34.54% allowing me to extend my claim of the 34th year (of 39) that I’ve beaten the index.

Dividend cuts were the big obstacle for the year as I endured five in total.  Frankly, it wasn’t until December that my Dividend Goal (10% annual increase) was in the bag.  This is typically attained in late October or early November. 

I have only three new companies on my watch list with limit orders in place on two.  All are foreign with Canada, Hong Kong and Japan tagged. I have a few I’m willing to shed with a couple more needing repositioning due to mergers.  For the first time in probably five years I’m in a position to reduce my holdings while beefing up my Anchor and Core positions.

Thirteen countries were represented in my portfolio (18.5% of my dividends), losing Ireland but gaining Japan via a merger.  The top countries were Canada (9.77%), UK (2.61%), Singapore (1.21%) and Sweden (1.02%). I’m continuing the migration of Canadian companies from my taxable accounts to my IRA to take advantage of the tax treaty (no Canadian tax withholding for most issues).

Continuing with the Monthly Recap in its newest iteration, I’m still finding pieces that require some elaboration in order to rationalize it.

For instance, the net purchase expense threshold is not a pure indicator of my cash position.  I’m thinking it’s in the 2-3% range as my cash position increased last month despite the purchases.  The Incr/Decr from the market — yes, 99.2% of the increase in portfolio value was due to the market.  A slight disappointment is the Dividend Raises. They weren’t enough to even round up to 0.01% (more a reflection of portfolio size than wimpy raises).

Dividends:

  • December delivered an increase of 40.87% Y/Y with most of the increase attributable to the Oct/Nov purchases, the OMI fiasco of last year aging off and a weaker US dollar (finally).
  • Dividend increases averaged 10.11% with 68.28% of the portfolio delivering at least one increase (including 5 cuts.  Basically a lackluster performance.
  • 2019 Dividends received were 13.78% greater than 2018 dividends and exceeded last years’ total on December 1st.  It would have been over 15% had there been no cuts.

Note: I updated my Goals page to provide a visual of these numbers.  Based on Mr All Things Money’s instruction set with a conversion to percentages.  My code only updates when the monthly Y/Y number is exceeded.  Otherwise, the prior year actual is used.

Spinoffs:

On Oct 4, 2018 MSG filed a confidential Form 10 to spin the sports business which remains in progress.

Mergers:

Spirit MTA REIT (SMTA) voted on Sept. 4th, 2019 to approve the liquidation of the REIT. I am awaiting the final settlement payout and as of December 31, this issue was delisted. I fully expect a profitable outcome for one of my most speculative positions.

SCHW to acquire AMTD for 1.0837 sh SCHW to 1 AMTD.  My only surprise with AMTD being taken out was the suitor – I had expected TD.  Regardless, I have three concerns over this deal, 1) profit margin compression with the onset of $0 fee trades, 2) possible liquidation of a partial TD stake to reduce their ownership share from 13.4% to 9.9% (the same issue Buffet regularly faces) and 3) 10 year phase-out of AMTD/TD cash sweep account relationship.  The third one means TD has a low cost (albeit, decreasing) source of deposits for the foreseeable future. After the first of the year, I’ll probably cash in AMTD and increase TD a little further.  

Although XRX is officially off the list with their Fujifilm settlement, Icahn & Co. couldn’t wait for the ink to dry before stirring things up with HPQ.  As of now, I am considering exiting my XRX position.

Splits and Stock Dividends

Although splits are agnostic, I consider them a positive with reverse splits a negative.  Two of my companies split this year – PWOD and FFIN with no reverse splits to report.

Five companies showered me with shares of stock ranging from 3% to 5%.  I do love stock dividends and this year the benefactors were: CBSH (5%), HWBK (4%), LARK (5%), AROW (3%) and CVLY (5%).

Summary

As we slide into tax season, we’ll see if my readjustments panned out.  My goal was to achieve the 0-10% tax bracket by taking a one year tax hit.  The first part was completed so the results will be evident in the next month or so.  Overall, not one of my better years but I did attain (at least) my minimum objectives.   

Hopefully your year was great or at least in line with the market. 

November 2019 Update

Alright, I do have a bias.  Generally I don’t pay much attention to Jim Cramer, but his recent attention grabbing headline did pull me in.  “Owning too many stocks and not enough cash can set you up for failure: Cramer” was the title.  As one who owns 200+ issues, I’m always on the lookout for alternative views.  My expectation was for the sage advice to be essentially “have a war chest and shopping list at the ready”.  But rather it was, “Limiting your holdings can be a great tool for investors who don’t have the time or the drive to do their homework for 20 or 30 different companies”.  The essential message being if you “own more than 10 stocks, you might want to consider paring back”. Say what? This recommendation doesn’t even provide exposure across all sectors. So what to do if like me you have an overabundance?  Sell, he says. “Sometimes, it can be as simple as selling some stocks and getting some cash on hand. Go sit on the sidelines — nothing wrong with that.” Very true if one has a knack for timing the markets. My methods aren’t for everyone either as my emphasis is on consolidation, typically M&A – which results in slightly higher mediocrity for this portion of my portfolio with the aspiration of getting a tape measure homer.  As they say, the devil is in the details. His view was apparently honed as a trader rather as a buy and hold type of investor as he states, “I would analyze every losing trade … I realized that good performance could be linked directly to having fewer positions”. Okey dokey, ‘nuff said ….

Certainly a long and roundabout way of saying the market was basically on an upward tear this month with only a few down days.  Try timing that movement! So the S&P rose a stellar 3.9% – the best since June while my portfolio – including the purchase spree I’ve been on – rose 9.84%.  Excluding the final round of purchases – even with no fresh money being used – the portfolio value rose by 2.43%, a tad below the index, probably due in part to buying at elevated levels.

PORTFOLIO UPDATES

  • increased my PB position and lost LTXB (merger).  I’m now overweight PB as my position doubled which I’ll reduce in the next tax year.
  • New Position – PBCT and lost UBNK (merger)
  • increased my WFC position (replication strategy)
  • New Position – KFC  (replication strategy)
  • New Position – PG (replication strategy)
  • increased my YUMC position basically as a rebellion against the President’s antics.  They derive 100% of their sales, all of their profits, no imports or exports (all domestic), and their entire supply chain is in China.  Yet they are incorporated in Delaware and pay a USD dividend. The major question is currency exchange on their P&L statement and the president’s delisting campaign.
  • increased my TD position (IRA).  I’ll increase it further and sell my taxable account shares after the first of the year.
  • New Position – KNBWY – another statement selection – message being , “Mr. President, play with tariffs all you like but there are Japanese companies other than car manufacturers employing thousands of Americans”.  Besides, I see their sales improving in 2020 with the Olympics being in Japan and it fits my bottler strategy.

DIVIDENDS

My primary focus resides on dividends with the goal being a rising flow on an annual basis.

  • November delivered an increase of 15.51% Y/Y.
  • Dividend increases averaged 10.11% with 68.72% of the portfolio delivering at least one increase (including 5 cuts). This is off last years’ pace and I believe a new personal record for dividend cuts in a single year since about 1980.
  • 2019 Dividends received were 99.63% of 2018 total dividends putting me on target to exceed last year’s total on December 1st. The YTD run rate is 110.76% of 2018, slightly over my 110.0% goal. Point of reference, this is the first time since starting this blog that I didn’t exceed the prior year dividends before the end of October.

Note: I updated my Goals page to provide a visual of these numbers.  Based on Mr All Things Money’s instruction set with a conversion to percentages.  My code only updates when the monthly Y/Y number is exceeded.  Otherwise, the prior year actual is used.

AT A GLANCE

Inspired by Simple Dividend Growth‘s reporting

Key thing I’m looking at is the ratio between market action and purchase activity. This month was roughly 80/20. I suspect most months will be 95/5 as I rebuild the war chest. Another point of interest was the M&A cash exceeding my dividends. I can assure you this is a rare occurrence. It will be interesting to see what I track going forward.

SPINOFFs

On Oct 4, 2018 MSG filed a confidential Form 10 to spin the sports business which remains in progress.

MERGERS

VLY to acquire ORIT for 1.6 sh VLY to 1 ORIT. This merger will result in a slight dividend cut November forward as the rate will be normalized to VLY’s current rate. In my view, the other positives outweigh this negative.  Should close December 1st.

Spirit MTA REIT (SMTA) voted on Sept. 4th to approve the sale of most assets to HPT for cash. A second vote was held to liquidate the REIT. The first payment was received and am awaiting final settlement payout. Fully expecting a profitable outcome for one of my most speculative positions.

SCHW to acquire AMTD for 1.0837 sh SCHW to 1 AMTD.  My only surprise with AMTD being taken out was the suitor – I had expected TD.  Regardless, I have three concerns over this deal, 1) profit margin compression with the onset of $0 fee trades, 2) possible liquidation of a partial TD stake to reduce their ownership share from 13.4% to 9.9% (the same issue Buffet regularly faces) and 3) 10 year phase-out of AMTD/TD cash sweep account relationship.  The third one means TD has a low cost (albeit, decreasing) source of deposits for the foreseeable future. After the first of the year, I’ll probably cash in AMTD and increase TD a little further.  

Although XRX is officially off the list with their Fujifilm settlement, Icahn & Co. couldn’t wait for the ink to dry before stirring things up with HPQ.  As of now, I am considering exiting my XRX position.

SUMMARY

Overall, the only complaint being not exceeding last year’s dividend haul until December. The culprits being five dividend cuts and merger timings (a couple of completions were accelerated to avoid a payment). My cash position is close to zero, but with replicating the kids’ portfolio complete, I expect this to rapidly change to rebuild a stash for my next sizable purchases (unless market conditions warrant), expected in tax season.

Here’s hoping your month was successful!

Reporting Style Update

On my “to-do” list was to refine my monthly results presentation to make it more relevant – particularly in light of the significant movements in my portfolio of late.  In search of ideas, I stumbled across the Simple Dividend Growth methodology. While not exactly what I had in mind, it covered probably 80% of which I could mix, match and modify to my hearts’ content.

His presentation covers Weekly actual and Forward Annual views, illustrated below.

XXX is text, $$$ currency

The largest differences are that I report monthly (as opposed to weekly), I convert actuals to percentages and I don’t use forward anything (except announced cuts) preferring to use trailing actuals.

The more subtle differences are twofold, I embrace stock dividends and M&A activity (one of his sell signals is a merger announcement).  So I’ve enhanced this template to serve my purposes as follows:

Actual as of 16 Nov 2019

The left column contains all ticker symbols – essentially a point of reference for portfolio activity.  The right column is the activity – as a percentage of portfolio value. The exception being the Dividends which are percentages of dividend activity.

I’ve segmented my new buys between the source of funds – the default being dividends accrued from prior months.  I don’t show my available cash as I reserve the right to spend it on my tax bill (like last April), take a trip or – in this case – replicate the granddaughter’s portfolio.  I may add a “new cash” line item in the event I hit the lottery or my living expenses decrease, otherwise I expect to continue funding purchases via excess funds generated by the portfolio.

I’m not sure how relevant the separate itemization of increases will be, but I’ll let it run for now.  In this example, BX increased their dividend but it doesn’t register as it amounts to 0.001962% – thereby rounding to 0.00%.  This becomes even more negligible when ORIT’s dividend cut is added. Likewise, the increase from stock dividends and DRIPs may also be too small to be meaningful.

The key point I wanted to visualize was the delta between market fluctuations and dividend growth.  Since my purchases are (generally) self funded by the portfolio, the fields: Increase from New Buys, Less Dividends, Less M&A cash and Incr/Decr from Market Action should equal 100%. 

The selfish reason?  After the four dividend cuts I experienced to start 2019, my assumption was the market was in for a rough year and I went into a little of a retrenchment mode.  My cash position rose and my purchases decreased. Now my dividend run rate is below normal – I might exceed 2018 dividends by month end which would be a month later than usual.  I’m used to coasting into the fourth quarter starting some positioning moves to get a head start for the new year. 

I’m thinking dividends deployed for purchases should be in the 3-5% range.  If I had used this method earlier in the year I probably would have realized faster how far I was lagging behind.

The term M&A Cash may be a little bit of a misnomer as a merger may be the trigger for multiple portfolio transactions which can be illustrated through this example.  The PB/LTXB merger was a cash and stock transaction and I owned both sides – PB in my IRA and LTXB in a taxable account. The cash was received this month.  I will sell PB in the IRA replacing it with TD and finally selling the TD in the taxable account. Excess cash in the IRA was used to create a TD starter position there. However, this daisy chain of events will occur over roughly two months to maximize the dividend payments.  The sales of the (current) overweight PB position and the soon to be overweight TD position will be classified as Positions Reduced.

Others present their results in a manner I found interesting including Dividend Driven and Wallet Squirrel.  Tom at Dividends Diversify had suggested creating an index. This solution is less complex but equally illustrative (I think).  I will probably track (perhaps on the side) the Buys to Dividends ratio as a correlation to market value (think “be greedy when others are fearful”) as this presentation may reflect increased buys when the market drops (or failure to do so).

So I’ll lay it out here for ideas, thoughts and discussion and intend to use it starting with my November review.

Just a Few Dribs and Drabs

To review this week’s market action is to basically yawn for a change.  Earnings season began but was tempered to a degree by economic news that questioned the robustness of the US consumer.  While the economy is still growing, the rate is slowing. My view remains that without a ‘real’ deal – skinny or otherwise – on the table between the US and China, both countries will continue to hobble along.

Meanwhile I did make one purchase this week that was a little unanticipated, but not totally unexpected.  I topped up my Legacy Texas (LTXB) holdings in preparation for the completion of the merger into Prosperity Bank (PB) which has received regulatory approval.  Currently I hold both sides of this merger, LTXB in a taxable account and PB in my IRA. Essentially I wanted to avoid assignment of an odd fractional share that I could do nothing with as the ratio is 0.875:1 (plus $6.28 cash). Assuming shareholder approval October 29th, the expectation is for the deal to close November 1st.  My current thinking is the new PB shares (and cash component) will be assigned to the taxable account. Subsequently, I intend to sell the old PB in my IRA replacing it with TD (to take advantage of the tax treaty).  After the dust settles, I will sell the TD in my taxable account. End result being more shares (slightly) of both PB and TD, no shares of LTXB and some excess cash.

I did hit the halfway point on my endeavor to replicate the grandkid’s trust (now liquidated, save one stock).  After I complete the transactions I’ll post regarding the rhyme and reason, but for now let’s say it’s to preserve all options regarding financial assistance as she begins the college application process. 

The strategy I’ve employed is to gauge the futures market for weakness prior to entering an order for market open as I decided to use M1 finance for the bulk of this replication.  For the most part, this has been a viable approach except of late there have been some wild swings going into the open. I’m unsure as to the why, but perhaps someone has identified the secret sauce regarding presidential tweets?

The effort remains ongoing regarding the directory update – primarily removing dormant entries.  It turns out I wind up spending more time than usual as my attention gets diverted by an interesting presentation or difference of opinion or a concept worthy of further review.  Examples of some of these include:

  • Dividends Diversify – in his review of the book Dividends Still Don’t Lie, the comment, “I did some searching on the internet for free services. But didn’t come up with anything that looked useful … Dividends Still Don’t Lie goes through how the calculations are done.  So it is certainly possible for a do it yourself investor to develop the calculations on their own.” garnered my attention.  Now the strategy discussed may be an anathema to a Buy and Hold type (my concern would be tax implications), the “tool” became the curiosity.  The best I could come up with was the Charles Schwab screener that could only analyze three of the book’s eleven metrics yielding fifteen possibilities for further manual research.
  • Finance Journey – the comments, “As a dividend investor, my full focus is on income than capital gain. Thus, capital gains or losses in my investments do not make any sense to me at least for now.” and “I do not convert dividends received from U.S stocks to Canadian dollar, and I use a 1 to 1 currency rate approach to keep the math simple and avoid fluctuations in my dividend income reports due to changes in the exchange rate.” were the culprits.  I trust the “full focus” does not exclude possible warning signals. For instance, many dividend cuts (income) are preceded by a falling stock price (capital gain (loss)). Likewise, the use of a 1:1 exchange ratio for simplicity sake risks masking the true portfolio performance. Personally, I (like ETFs) translate income from my thirteen foreign holdings to home currency prior to publishing results. Besides, if the full focus is income why distort currency exchange (which is a direct income factor)?
  • Finance Pondering is a relatively new blog from the UK that is in the process of ramping up in a thoughtful manner.  The insightful questions raised in this rollout carry the promise of one day being one of the standouts. Yet there is already one nagging question that I hope will be answered in the future – “Why Trainline?”.  To enlighten my audience, Trainline is a ticket booking company that charges a premium in exchange for convenience in what is basically a mobile app. My issues are, 1) it was a 2019 IPO (albeit one of the better ones), 2) KKR was involved (can you say monetize and exit strategy), 3) I question the nature of Brits to embrace premium services given the uncertainty of Brexit and recent demise of Thomas Cook.  

This weeks’ final thought is a potential black swan.  My concern is the expanding pockets of unrest appearing from Hong Kong to Chile to Spain.  Ignoring Turkey/Syria for now, just something I’m keeping my eyes on …