On my “to-do” list was to refine my monthly results presentation to make it more relevant – particularly in light of the significant movements in my portfolio of late. In search of ideas, I stumbled across the Simple Dividend Growth methodology. While not exactly what I had in mind, it covered probably 80% of which I could mix, match and modify to my hearts’ content.
His presentation covers Weekly actual and Forward Annual views, illustrated below.
The largest differences are that I report monthly (as opposed to weekly), I convert actuals to percentages and I don’t use forward anything (except announced cuts) preferring to use trailing actuals.
The more subtle differences are twofold, I embrace stock dividends and M&A activity (one of his sell signals is a merger announcement). So I’ve enhanced this template to serve my purposes as follows:
The left column contains all ticker symbols – essentially a point of reference for portfolio activity. The right column is the activity – as a percentage of portfolio value. The exception being the Dividends which are percentages of dividend activity.
I’ve segmented my new buys between the source of funds – the default being dividends accrued from prior months. I don’t show my available cash as I reserve the right to spend it on my tax bill (like last April), take a trip or – in this case – replicate the granddaughter’s portfolio. I may add a “new cash” line item in the event I hit the lottery or my living expenses decrease, otherwise I expect to continue funding purchases via excess funds generated by the portfolio.
I’m not sure how relevant the separate itemization of increases will be, but I’ll let it run for now. In this example, BX increased their dividend but it doesn’t register as it amounts to 0.001962% – thereby rounding to 0.00%. This becomes even more negligible when ORIT’s dividend cut is added. Likewise, the increase from stock dividends and DRIPs may also be too small to be meaningful.
The key point I wanted to visualize was the delta between market fluctuations and dividend growth. Since my purchases are (generally) self funded by the portfolio, the fields: Increase from New Buys, Less Dividends, Less M&A cash and Incr/Decr from Market Action should equal 100%.
The selfish reason? After the four dividend cuts I experienced to start 2019, my assumption was the market was in for a rough year and I went into a little of a retrenchment mode. My cash position rose and my purchases decreased. Now my dividend run rate is below normal – I might exceed 2018 dividends by month end which would be a month later than usual. I’m used to coasting into the fourth quarter starting some positioning moves to get a head start for the new year.
I’m thinking dividends deployed for purchases should be in the 3-5% range. If I had used this method earlier in the year I probably would have realized faster how far I was lagging behind.
The term M&A Cash may be a little bit of a misnomer as a merger may be the trigger for multiple portfolio transactions which can be illustrated through this example. The PB/LTXB merger was a cash and stock transaction and I owned both sides – PB in my IRA and LTXB in a taxable account. The cash was received this month. I will sell PB in the IRA replacing it with TD and finally selling the TD in the taxable account. Excess cash in the IRA was used to create a TD starter position there. However, this daisy chain of events will occur over roughly two months to maximize the dividend payments. The sales of the (current) overweight PB position and the soon to be overweight TD position will be classified as Positions Reduced.
Others present their results in a manner I found interesting including Dividend Driven and Wallet Squirrel. Tom at Dividends Diversify had suggested creating an index. This solution is less complex but equally illustrative (I think). I will probably track (perhaps on the side) the Buys to Dividends ratio as a correlation to market value (think “be greedy when others are fearful”) as this presentation may reflect increased buys when the market drops (or failure to do so).
So I’ll lay it out here for ideas, thoughts and discussion and intend to use it starting with my November review.