January 2020 Update

What a way to start the new year.  Beginning with the reshuffling of my portfolio and continuing right into earnings season and the inevitable debate over the Coronavirus impact on the economy … all I can say is yep it’s a lot to digest – and it’s only January.  With the gyrations in the market, all but two of my low-ball limit orders executed, probably the most controversial being MTR Corporation – the Hong Kong high speed rail line recently at the forefront of the protests. Anyway, I added two Canadian companies (Fortis and TMX Group – (Toronto stock exchange)) and starting the long rumored whittling of some of the non-core holdings (XRX and MSGN).  Most of the other action was moving Canadian companies from my taxable accounts to the IRA – some of which were done as a rebalance to minimize fees (hence the slight additions to the other holdings). Also selling part of the PB stock (which went overweight due to a merger) to fund these movements. As I indicated last week, this is the first of a multi-month transition. Obviously my timing was decent (this time, anyway) as the S&P lost 0.16% for the month while my portfolio gained 1.81%.

PORTFOLIO UPDATES

DIVIDENDS

My primary focus resides on dividends with the goal being a rising flow on an annual basis.

  • January delivered an increase of 22.73% Y/Y primarily the result of last years’ dividend cuts rolling off.
  • Dividend increases averaged 11.48% with 8.5% of the portfolio delivering an increase.
  • 2020 Dividends received were 1.86% of 2019 total dividends putting me on target to exceed last year’s total in November. The YTD run rate is under my 110.0% goal but I anticipate this will normalize as my portfolio movement becomes clearer and the current year begins to distinguish itself from the last. 

Note: I updated my Goals page to provide a visual of these numbers.  Based on Mr All Things Money’s instruction set with a conversion to percentages.  My code only updates when the monthly Y/Y number is exceeded.  Otherwise, the prior year actual is used.

AT A GLANCE

Inspired by Simple Dividend Growths reporting

The relationship between market action and purchase activity was roughly 95/5.  As I’m generally playing with ‘house money’ (proceeds from sales, M&A activity and dividends), I doubt there will be a significant variance until I fund my 2019 IRA contribution.  The Net Purchase Expense being less than 1 or 2% illustrates the ‘house money’ concept. Timing did play a part as I sold early in the month (before the drop) and most of the purchases were in the latter part of the month. 

SPINOFFs

On Oct 4, 2018 MSG filed a confidential Form 10 to spin the sports business which remains in progress.

MERGERS

Spirit MTA REIT (SMTA) voted on Sept. 4th to approve the sale of most assets to HPT for cash. A second vote was held to liquidate the REIT. The first payment was received and awaiting final settlement payout. Fully expecting a profitable outcome for one of my most speculative positions.

SCHW to acquire AMTD for 1.0837 sh SCHW to 1 AMTD.  My only surprise with AMTD being taken out was the suitor – I had expected TD.  Regardless, I have three concerns over this deal, 1) profit margin compression with the onset of $0 fee trades, 2) possible liquidation of a partial TD stake to reduce their ownership share from 13.4% to 9.9% (the same issue Buffet regularly faces) and 3) 10 year phase-out of AMTD/TD cash sweep account relationship.  The third one means TD has a low cost (albeit, decreasing) source of deposits for the foreseeable future. After the first of the year, I’ll probably cash in AMTD and increase TD a little further.  

SUMMARY

Overall, the only complaint is the sluggish start to the year. Minus the drag from last years’ dividend cuts I figure this will be short lived.  On my goals, progress was made as follows:

  • Scenario 1 – TD is now confirmed
  • Scenario 2 – Half complete, awaiting timing issues for the sell part
  • Scenario 3 – Determination of maximum contribution amount complete
  • Scenario 4 – 2020 RMD amounts identified

Here’s hoping your month was successful!

My Lazy*** Goals

Actual book cover, JoeKarbo.com

In my younger days, I was fascinated with the notion of becoming wealthy with a minimal amount of effort.  To that end I scraped and saved enough pennies to become the proud owner of a copy of the late Joe Karbo’s best seller, The Lazy Man’s Way to Riches.  Imagine my disappointment when I realized that significant effort was still required, albeit in a different manner.  If the book were updated today, I would think it would gloss over the time and coding required to attain website SEO success and focus on the rewards – while ignoring the fact that only a few will reach that level.

My quest for the laziest way to make money was not in vain as I stumbled onto dividend oriented investing forty years ago.  Essentially one can spend as much – or little – time and effort as they want in this regard. One person can use a set-it and forget-it strategy while another can be actively involved.  Or in my case, I’ve used both. While I recovered from my strokes, my portfolio was on auto-pilot accumulating dividends awaiting my return. For over a year – and it didn’t miss a beat. 

The complaint I’ve most often heard is that it takes too long to see results and this endeavor does require patience to get the snowball rolling – probably five to seven years.  But once it gains momentum it is a force to be reckoned with.

This is a meandering way to get to this weeks’ point. I’m really not that much into goals at this stage, but since I’m basically a let the portfolio do its own thing type of guy, there are times when adjustments just have to be made and framing them as goals could be beneficial.  For this year, perhaps you can refer to me as an active manager. The broader theme was my desire to reduce the number of holdings and so far I’ve dropped two (XRX and MSGN) but added two (FTS and TMXXF). Currently, this is a wash. On my monthly reports – with the exception of the new and sold positions – all of the activity nets out with an increase in the value of the stocks retained – which will probably be the case throughout the year.  

Scenario #1

Goal – consolidate all Canadian stocks across multiple accounts into the IRA

Rationale – the tax treaty between the countries allows most holdings to be exempt from the 15% Canadian tax withholding

Funding Source – the sale of PB from my IRA (leaving a slightly larger position in a taxable account)

Actions Required – 

  1. Ensure all have no Canadian taxed dividends
    1. RY, PWCDF are confirms
    2. BCE, CM, BNS, CP, CNI, TRP, TD, BMO, ENB, TMXXF, MFC, SLF, HRNNF, TU, RCI, FTS are pending confirmation
  2. If any are taxed, file appeals
  3. If appeal denied, review for possible sale
  4. If confirmed, add to TRP, TD, BMO, MFC, HRNNF positions
  5. Close out remaining taxable Canadian positions including NTR and AMTD (US)

Over the years I’ve received conflicting answers on the taxability issue.  With free trades I can get the real answer with the next dividend payment. I have 20 current Canadian positions plus AMTD (American, but I grouped it with the Canadians due to TD’s ownership stake).  NTR and AMTD (merger) will be closed positions – probably in April. End result will be more room for foreign dividends to stay under the Form 1116 filing cap.

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Scenario #2

Goal – Migrate a few issues from Motif to Webull

Rationale – Webull has a promotion too good to pass

Funding Source – petty cash to be replenished by the sale of the same issues in Motif (timed to avoid wash rule issues – if applicable)

My issue with Motif is that they are late to the party on free trades, so I’m beginning to take some money off their table.  Although not fond of Webull (they are in the same camp as Schwab with paying stock dividends as cash-in-lieu rather than fractionals), getting three free stocks is a return equivalent to an immediate 5% (or more).  As my moniker implies, I seek returns where I find them.

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Scenario #3

Goal – Add cash to spousal IRA

Rationale – Reduce tax liability

Funding Source – emergency cash to be replenished by the anticipated tax refund

For the first time in years, we have some earned income which enables us to contribute.  This will be done into the spousal one which is not subject to RMDs (yet).

Scenario #4

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Goal – Address RMDs without liquidating stock

Rationale – Keep the snowball alive

Funding Source – accrued surplus dividends

Our planning for this event was done a few years ago when we reduced the holdings in two IRAs.  One contains all SBUX (cost basis of $6) and the other all AAPL. 2019’s RMDs were addressed by surplus accrued dividends.  In 2020 we may have to journal transfer a few shares of each to the joint account which happens to already have these issues in place.  RMD slam dunk – except for the wife who’d like the cash – hence the alternate funding source.

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So there are this lazy man’s goals for 2020 and it sure looks like more work than I’ve seen in awhile.  In my spare time I can see how my diverse and weird ideas panned out (or not) to determine the further portfolio reductions so I can return to being a future lazy man! As always, comments, thoughts and criticisms are always welcome.

2019 Year End Report

Looking back at last years’ End Of Year post, the concerns raised at that point all remain valid.  I have to admit that even with the evils of tariffs, rising deficits and US dollar strength the economy remained surprisingly strong.  I did nail one right – the administration’s claim that GDP growth can outpace the deficit was wrong. If it can’t be done when the economy is hitting on all cylinders – the question becomes ‘when can it?’

For the month, the S&P index rose 2.73% and my portfolio (excluding October and November purchases) rose 4.26%.  When those purchases are included, the monthly increase was 10.51%. Yes my gain would have been larger had I re-invested the dividends throughout the year but at least I was fully in the market during the last quarter run-up.  For the year the S&P rose 30.43% (depending on how it’s calculated) the best year since 2013. My Portfolio rose 34.54% allowing me to extend my claim of the 34th year (of 39) that I’ve beaten the index.

Dividend cuts were the big obstacle for the year as I endured five in total.  Frankly, it wasn’t until December that my Dividend Goal (10% annual increase) was in the bag.  This is typically attained in late October or early November. 

I have only three new companies on my watch list with limit orders in place on two.  All are foreign with Canada, Hong Kong and Japan tagged. I have a few I’m willing to shed with a couple more needing repositioning due to mergers.  For the first time in probably five years I’m in a position to reduce my holdings while beefing up my Anchor and Core positions.

Thirteen countries were represented in my portfolio (18.5% of my dividends), losing Ireland but gaining Japan via a merger.  The top countries were Canada (9.77%), UK (2.61%), Singapore (1.21%) and Sweden (1.02%). I’m continuing the migration of Canadian companies from my taxable accounts to my IRA to take advantage of the tax treaty (no Canadian tax withholding for most issues).

Continuing with the Monthly Recap in its newest iteration, I’m still finding pieces that require some elaboration in order to rationalize it.

For instance, the net purchase expense threshold is not a pure indicator of my cash position.  I’m thinking it’s in the 2-3% range as my cash position increased last month despite the purchases.  The Incr/Decr from the market — yes, 99.2% of the increase in portfolio value was due to the market.  A slight disappointment is the Dividend Raises. They weren’t enough to even round up to 0.01% (more a reflection of portfolio size than wimpy raises).

Dividends:

  • December delivered an increase of 40.87% Y/Y with most of the increase attributable to the Oct/Nov purchases, the OMI fiasco of last year aging off and a weaker US dollar (finally).
  • Dividend increases averaged 10.11% with 68.28% of the portfolio delivering at least one increase (including 5 cuts.  Basically a lackluster performance.
  • 2019 Dividends received were 13.78% greater than 2018 dividends and exceeded last years’ total on December 1st.  It would have been over 15% had there been no cuts.

Note: I updated my Goals page to provide a visual of these numbers.  Based on Mr All Things Money’s instruction set with a conversion to percentages.  My code only updates when the monthly Y/Y number is exceeded.  Otherwise, the prior year actual is used.

Spinoffs:

On Oct 4, 2018 MSG filed a confidential Form 10 to spin the sports business which remains in progress.

Mergers:

Spirit MTA REIT (SMTA) voted on Sept. 4th, 2019 to approve the liquidation of the REIT. I am awaiting the final settlement payout and as of December 31, this issue was delisted. I fully expect a profitable outcome for one of my most speculative positions.

SCHW to acquire AMTD for 1.0837 sh SCHW to 1 AMTD.  My only surprise with AMTD being taken out was the suitor – I had expected TD.  Regardless, I have three concerns over this deal, 1) profit margin compression with the onset of $0 fee trades, 2) possible liquidation of a partial TD stake to reduce their ownership share from 13.4% to 9.9% (the same issue Buffet regularly faces) and 3) 10 year phase-out of AMTD/TD cash sweep account relationship.  The third one means TD has a low cost (albeit, decreasing) source of deposits for the foreseeable future. After the first of the year, I’ll probably cash in AMTD and increase TD a little further.  

Although XRX is officially off the list with their Fujifilm settlement, Icahn & Co. couldn’t wait for the ink to dry before stirring things up with HPQ.  As of now, I am considering exiting my XRX position.

Splits and Stock Dividends

Although splits are agnostic, I consider them a positive with reverse splits a negative.  Two of my companies split this year – PWOD and FFIN with no reverse splits to report.

Five companies showered me with shares of stock ranging from 3% to 5%.  I do love stock dividends and this year the benefactors were: CBSH (5%), HWBK (4%), LARK (5%), AROW (3%) and CVLY (5%).

Summary

As we slide into tax season, we’ll see if my readjustments panned out.  My goal was to achieve the 0-10% tax bracket by taking a one year tax hit.  The first part was completed so the results will be evident in the next month or so.  Overall, not one of my better years but I did attain (at least) my minimum objectives.   

Hopefully your year was great or at least in line with the market. 

Feb 2018 Update

The theme for the month was volatility.  A couple of ETNs cratered as a result of the high volatility causing investors to lose significantly when using these levered products.   “We sincerely apologize for causing significant difficulties to investors,” Nomura said.  Credit Suisse stated “investors who held shares of XIV had bet against at volatility at their own risk.  It worked well for a long time until it didn’t, which is generally what happens in markets”.   Caveat emptor.

During the month, the S&P index dipped into correction territory before rallying to close the month down 3.89%.  My portfolio sympathized with the index closing down 5.53%.  I never hit correction so my peak drop was less but I also failed to recover as quickly.  Probably an area to perform a root cause analysis on at some point.  Following back-to-back monthly losses against the S&P, I’m down 3.44%  to start the year. Continue reading

The -opoly World

Early Retiree Reality (ERR) recently published a thought provoking article titled My Duopoly and Oligopoly Shopping List on Seeking Alpha.  The premise is essentially that duopolies and oligopolies provide wider moats which results in greater profitability.  I would encourage you to read it.  This idea is similar to one I’ve been working on with my Speculative Pillars series on Cord cutting, Transaction Processing and to a lesser degree Regional Banks.  Although neatly packaged, I failed to make the leap into the –opoly world.

Continue reading