Forget a “V”

“By clicking register below, you are acknowledging that an inherent risk of exposure to Covid-19 exists in any public place where people are present.”

“By attending the rally, you and any guests voluntarily assume all risks related to exposure to Covid-19 and agree not to hold Donald J. Trump for President, Inc.; BOK Center; ASM Global; or any of their affiliates, directors, officers, employees, agents, contractors or volunteers liable for any illness or injury.”   

Liability waiver for Tulsa Rally 

My hardcore readers know I have a penchant for fanciful ideas – probably a by-product of my days as a Business Analyst where I made money figuring out what could possibly go wrong in a given scenario.  Let’s play with a set of assumptions – and I choose to ignore the subset that is wrong on optics giving the President the benefit of the doubt that the timing (Juneteenth) is rooted in ignorance rather than racism.

We’ll even stipulate that Covid-19 is not a current (but existent) major threat to public safety in Oklahoma and the Trump Waivers meet the legal test for clarity.

Where the Trump Train risks derailment is on two fronts.  The first being whether the Tulsa County Public Facilities Authority (owner with the City of Tulsa of the BOK Arena) is legally included (or excluded) in the definition of state agency.  If included, the thorny issue of “a State agency may not enter into a procurement contract limiting the liability of a private vendor, because a contingent obligation would arise for which no appropriation had been made, violating Article X, Section 23 of the Oklahoma Constitution.”  could arise – resulting in potential liability for ASM Global which is owned by Philip Anschutz who is generally a Republican donor.

The second – and more important – issue is minors at the rally.  Rulings on state law have held, “liability waivers signed by minors are void, even if ratified by the parent”, indicating that if a minor attends and contracts the virus, legal recourse is available contrary to the desires of the Trump Corp.

Correlating this back to the market, the Fed Chair spoke, the market dropped and Trump tweeted his wrath.  All business as normal nowadays, but the message delivered reinforced my thought process.

  • expects that the unemployment rate will end 2020 at 9.3%
  • expects GDP output will slump 6.5% in 2020

It appears any “V” shaped recovery is off the table – except for Trump’s table.  My concerns reside in the longer term unemployment and when the stimulus runs off.  So battening down the hatches continues to be the theme.

To elaborate on my insurance thoughts a little, most companies are anticipating some impact from Covid-19.  Then the unexpected damage resulting from the protests.  Soon hurricane season is upon us.  I suspect the Fed keeping rates lower for longer will pressure their ability to profit from the spread.  This being why I’m reducing my exposure (one left to sell until I think I’m right-sized).

The story on Motif:  Folio bought the accounts and remaining AUM and promptly sold out to Goldman Sachs.  Motif’s technology and intellectual property was purchased by Schwab.  As an aside, M1 is private and recently completed a Series B funding round.

On the migration, 23 issues were sold.  I did add a new one, Nintendo (continued lockdowns?).  I need to add additional shares to six issues before calling the transition complete.  The ugly migration got even uglier with the receipt of the final statement.  Apparently the original was based on when the request was submitted to Pershing (BK), the final was based on when the transaction was complete (about a three day differential).  Plus the actual sale price was not provided so I had to back into the equation.  Took a week longer than expected – the good news is all expected cash has been accounted for and only one dividend was lost (due to timing – several were doubled).  I still have my tracking sheets to update and release online, therefore a work still in progress but getting closer.

Coming full circle, the only logic I can see is that Trump’s best hope for a second term is to be proven right on the pandemic subsiding as other metrics suck.  The GDP is down, the economy is in recession, unemployment is sky-high and many are fearful of normalizing too quickly.  His only remaining ace in the hole is to prove the mainstream media wrong.  Rallies and a convention using his supporters and delegates as live bait is the ultimate gambit.

As always, stay safe!

Note: The rally was moved to June 20th