To follow a theme outlined a couple of weeks ago, my going forward intent in my random musings segments is to view some of the issues of the 2020 presidential campaign under discussion. My investing rationale has always been that to be successful, one has to understand all possible outcomes which means digging through a lot of crap to discern viable opportunities. It would appear at this early stage that much like 2016, 2020 will have plenty of that to wade through. As an added bonus, I don’t want to disappoint my newest audience demographic by suppressing my irreverence. As always, these are only observations awaiting an investing opportunity that may never present itself.
The Pitchfork Economics series on buybacks continued on February 26th with Sen. Cory Booker (one of the multitude of Democratic presidential contenders) as a guest discussing his new bill, Workers Dividend Act. Evidence cited to support his cause is twofold.
- American Airlines (AAL) wage increase was roundly panned by analysts. Booker states the analyst opinions were misguided – which is true. To parlay these opinions into supporting rationale against buybacks is equally misguided as these were partially collectively bargained. (i.e., benefit to unionized employees which is a goal of the bill.)
- His use of Walmart (WMT) as the proverbial case of buyback greed ignores some aspects that are detrimental to his position. Walmart offers its’ employees matching 401K plans, stock ownership plans with a 15% discount and HSAs, of which some – if not all – allow employees to share proportionately in the “wealth” gained through buybacks. The choice resides with the employee as to participation.
In an attempt to frame rhetoric with reality, I chose my oldest 15 holdings to identify what happened over the past three years.
|Comcast||3.05% decline||1.83% decline ||3.18% decline |
|WEC Energy ||0.09% decline ||.09% incr. ||16.21% incr.|
|Chevron||0.46% incr.||1.33% incr.||0.11% decline |
|Kimberly-Cl.||1.77% decline ||1.6% decline ||1.26% decline|
|Norf. Southrn||3.48% decline ||1.93% decline ||2.76% decline |
|Clorox||1.19% decline ||0.11% decline ||0.8% decline |
|Prosperity B.||0.51% incr. ||0.28% decline ||0.53% decline |
|Sysco||0.5% decline||5% decline ||3.26% decline |
|Owens & Minor||0.0% change ||0.16% decline ||0.16% decline |
|Walt Disney||1.51% decline ||3.72% decline ||4.1% decline |
|Home Depot||2.81% decline ||3.82% decline ||4.68% decline |
|PepsiCo||0.9% decline ||0.96% decline ||2.22% decline |
|Kimco Realty||0.62% decline ||1.03% incr.||1.66% incr.|
|Towne Bank||0.13% incr.||0.08% incr.||1.05% incr.|
Data from MacroTrends
In this scenario (excluding increases denoted bold/italic), the buybacks – as a percentage of the stock outstanding – actually decreased during each of Trump’s years as president despite the tax plan (from 2.1%/1.94%/1.45%). Companies increasing their share count did so generally to use as currency in lieu of debt. In Chevron’s case this was to fund capital expenditures. Most of the others were for acquisitions. It’s only slightly ironic that a merger cutting jobs and increasing capital concentration (banking sector) would be viewed more favorably due to an expanding share count
This discussion topic has also been picked up by Mr Tako Escapes who elaborates more skillfully than I. I don’t dispute two points here, 1) Companies tend to have poor judgement in the timing of these transactions (buy high) and 2) the dollar amounts being expended. But a dose of reality has to exist as well, I mean – realistically how many capex dollars should be spent to further the worldwide glut of steel (as one example)?
At least this exercise has been interesting but to draw any real conclusions requires a larger sample size. More questions will also arise such as, ‘Are buybacks more prevalent in the overall S&P universe moreso than the DGI slice?’ or ‘Is my portfolio a large enough sample to be reflective of the stats bandied about by the Democratic candidates?’. As usual in this blog, more questions than answers. I intend to complete this exercise for all of my holdings during the year
Other concepts will likely hit the garbage heap prior to getting much traction including a wealth tax (constitutional issues) and Modern Monetary Policy (hyperinflation). As an aside, these concerns, per David McWilliams piece entitled Quantitative easing was the father of millennial socialism as presented by Ben Carlson makes for an interesting case. It certainly appears that the 2020 election season is off to a rousing start. Bottom line, I suspect some candidates will use this issue as a cry to rally the base with minimal substance to follow – similar in many ways to “Build the Wall” of yesteryear. A reflection of what little has been learned over the last two years. In my mind not an investable theory.
As always, opinions are welcome!