March brought us the longest DOW losing streak in five and a half years on the heels of the first legislative defeat of the Trump administration. The talking heads then moved their focus to the “end of the earnings recession”. Frankly, I think as long as the US dollar remains strong, earnings will continue to suffer – except for domestically focused companies. As a leading indicator to this thesis, I would point to the slowing growth in dividend increases as a proxy. Regardless, the S&P closed the month down .04% while my portfolio rebounded ending the month up 3.3%. At the end of the first quarter, I lead the S&P by 1.35%.
Headlines impacting my portfolio:
- 3/1 – SQ buys OrderAhead (pvt)
- 3/6 – FMBI acquires Premier Asset Mgmt, LLC
- 3/9 – BR acquires Message Automation, Ltd.
- 3/13 – BUSE acquiring MDLM
- 3/16 – MMM acquiring Scott Safety from JCI
- 3/16 – Fed lowers barriers for <$100B bank mergers
- 3/20 – UL reviewing sale of spreads line
- 3/23 – BLK buys 5% stake in NTDOY
- 3/27 – BLL sells paint can line to BWAY Holding
- 3/27 – DST buys remaining UK JVs from STT
- 3/27 – SGBK to merge with HOMB
- 3/28 – KO and KOF close on AdeS line purchase from UL
- 3/29 – MA acquires NuData Security
- 3/30 – CM increases offer for PVTB
- Added to BCE
- Added to SQ
- Added to KO
- Added to TD
- Initiated position in AKO.B
- March delivered an increase of 9.15% over March 2016. 2.24% of this increase is attributable to purchases with the remaining 97.76% a result of dividend increases. The Y/Y comparison is a little distorted as four companies shifted pay dates and one special dividend did not reoccur.
- March had an increase of 6.44% over the prior quarter. This was primarily due to a pay date shift as a result of a merger.
- Declared dividend increases averaged 7.75% with 36.42% of my portfolio delivering at least one raise (1 cut – YUM).
- YTD Dividends received were 27.1% of total 2016 dividends. If the current run rate is maintained would exceed 2016 around October 15th – particularly with most of my semi-annual or interim/final cycles paying during the next quarter.
The MET spin (Brighthouse Financial – BHF) remains pending.
Agrium/POT, JNS/HGG.L and SGBK.HOMB remain pending