Now that I’ve presented my 2019 game plan and my positioning moves planned for the last quarter, the time is ripe to see the strategies embraced by others. First off the blocks was Credit Suisse with a projection of an 11% upside with some volatility. I can’t disagree with the answer but question the methodology. Their belief is the rise will mainly be on the backs of investors willing to pay up for quality (margin expansion). My belief is that it will be riding the back of productivity increases as a result of the tax plan. At least we both recognize that the Y/Y EPS growth rate is generally not sustainable.
The theme for the month was volatility. A couple of ETNs cratered as a result of the high volatility causing investors to lose significantly when using these levered products. “We sincerely apologize for causing significant difficulties to investors,” Nomura said. Credit Suisse stated “investors who held shares of XIV had bet against at volatility at their own risk. It worked well for a long time until it didn’t, which is generally what happens in markets”. Caveat emptor.
During the month, the S&P index dipped into correction territory before rallying to close the month down 3.89%. My portfolio sympathized with the index closing down 5.53%. I never hit correction so my peak drop was less but I also failed to recover as quickly. Probably an area to perform a root cause analysis on at some point. Following back-to-back monthly losses against the S&P, I’m down 3.44% to start the year. Continue reading
I was starting to wonder when – not if – and how the big guns would start deploying their cash stash. Most have investors to answer to and it has been a relatively quiet year so far – so it must be time to begin prowling for deals to bake and pots to stir.
First out of the chutes was the kingpin Warren fresh off the aborted Unilever deal. Leaving 3G in his dust, last week he ran one from his playbook that worked before. This time the victim being Home Capital Group which required a cash infusion following a run on deposits. His $C2B 9.0% loan is at better terms than the one currently in place provided by the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan. He’s also getting a discounted share price on a stake that could equal 38%. The advisors were RY and BMO in which I’m long both. As an aside … if the US dollar weakens further, profits could be booked on the FX angle as well.
Then only this morning he announced a 9.8% stake in Store Capital. This one should provide support for REITs in general while (at least on paper) be an investment that meets his standards for playing nice.
This morning brought the announcement that Dan Loeb’s Third Point has amassed a 1.3% stake in Nestlé. This appears to be a ploy to pressure the company to create ‘shareholder value’ by shedding assets and taking on debt. It could be argued that Nestlé’s stake in L’Oreal is a slight hedge against commodity pricing and their conservative nature is an asset rather than liability. I see this as more of an attempt at greenmail with minimal risk. If pundits are correct, the Swiss Franc should get stronger versus the US dollar this year. If so, even without spurring corporate change, profits could be booked on the currency.
In today’s most twisted play, the title goes to Tiger Global who reportedly have shorted Tesco plc while being long Amazon. Not a bad call with Amazon’s Whole Foods announcement last week hurting grocery retailers. But if the FT report is correct and this position was initiated in January, one has to wonder if they were privy to inside information? Especially when initiated anonymously through an offshore entity?
So much for this week’s questions … and onward toward month end.
November was a wild month with a downward trend leading into the US elections and what is being referred to as the ‘Trump Rally’ following the widely unexpected result. All major indexes achieved record highs on November 21st. Fortunately I was able to redeploy the majority of the merger funds prior to the election. This month The S&P gained 3.42%. My portfolio recorded a gain of 11.49% (no normalization) largely reflecting my overweight position in the Financial sector. This increases my lead over the S&P for the year to 17.74% with one month to go.
Headlines impacting my portfolio:
- 11/2 – EPR acquires CLLY properties in liquidation
- 11/8 – XRX spin (CNDT) set for 12/31/16, ratio 1:5
- 11/14 – Maine is final approval for the BHB/LSBG merger. Closing expected Jan 2017.
- 11/15 – BMO designated as Canadian clearing firm for renminbi trades
- 11/16 – AMC gets EU approval to for Odeon & UCI merger
I chose not to do an October portfolio update due to all the activity which distorted the results a little, especially the XIRR column. The November data has been compiled and should be posted in the next couple of days with the goals update later in the week. The Unabridged portfolio should be next week as per normal.
- Added to DIS
- Added to UL
- Added to PEP
- Added to TD
- Added to KMB
- Added to NJR
- New position – IRM
- Added to TRP
- Added to KOF
- Added to CCE
- Added to FLIC (they chose to round up fractionals on a split)
- November delivered an increase of 29.1% over November 2015. This was due about evenly between dividend increases (Y/Y) and late 2015 funding.
- November had a 2.1% increase over the prior quarter.
- Announced dividend increases currently average 12.5% with 71.81% of my portfolio having at least one raise so far this year.
- Through November, dividends received exceeded total 2015 dividends by 13.8%.
The XRX spin (Conduent – CNDT) is on track to complete 12/31/2016.
LSBG/BHB expected to close in January 2017.
October was basically a quiet month with OPEC failing – once again – to shore up their hold on the oil markets. Chevron announced a small increase in their dividend maintaining their status as a Champion. Several small positions were added at month end as the market began a pullback (continuing into November) enabling me to start redeploying funds received from PNY’s merger with DUK. This month The S&P dropped 1.94%. My portfolio was basically flat, ending down 0.1%. Note: I normalized these numbers to consider the impact of cash infusion from the merger. My ‘pure’ equity positions decreased by 4.15%. The need for this normalization should end as my excess cash is used. This increases my lead for the year to 11.5% with two months to go.
Headlines impacting my portfolio:
- 10/3 – JNS to merge w/ Henderson
- 10/11 – SRCE gains FRB approval for Sarasota, FL branch
- 10/19 – C finalist to be designated as clearing firm for Renminbi trades
I’m a little behind again this month but the portfolio data has been compiled and will be posted in the next couple of days with the goals update later in the week. The Unabridged portfolio should be next week as per normal.
- Closed PNY due to merger
- Added to BMO
- Added to CVLY prior to ex-div for the stock dividend
- Added to JNS (weakness on currency exposure)
- New position – ABM
- New position – AMT (Jan)
- New position -BLL
- New position -CASY
- New position -CHCO
- New position -KOF (Mex. peso exposure)
- New position -COKE
- New position -CCE (UK exposure)
- New position -CSAL
- New position -CTBI (Jan)
- New position -CCI
- New position -HUM (Jan)
- New position -LAMR
- New position -NWFL
- New position -OCFC
- New position -ONB
- New position -OUT
- New position -PLD
- New position -QCOM
- New position -DGX (Jan)
- New position -SRC (Jan)
- New position – SGBK (Cuba exosure)
- New position – BATRA
- New position – VALU
- New position – VER (Jan)
- New position – YUMC (YUM spin-off)
- October delivered an increase of 28.9% over October 2015. This was due about evenly between dividend increases (Y/Y) and late 2015 funding.
- October was down 10.68% from the prior quarter due to special and semi-annual payments in July.
- Announced dividend increases currently average 12.59% with 67.11% of my portfolio having at least one raise so far this year.
- Through October, dividends received exceeded total 2015 dividends by 7.2%.
Roughly half of the PNY/DUK proceeds have been redeployed with an additional 3 orders pending for January payers. I’ve filled some of the hole I’ll face in January, so I plan on maintaining a small cash position through the election before making further decisions.
The XRX spin (Conduent) is on track to complete by year end. MetLife has filed for a spin of their Brighthouse Financial unit under the ticker BHF.
Proxies were received and voted for both the LSBG/BHB and AGU/POT mergers.
Back on October 15th I wrote a piece titled As The Dust Settles which chronicled the bizarre events going on at Magnum Hunter (MHR/MHRC). With the recent Kinder Morgan (KMI) dividend cut, I figured it was probably time for an update given the similarities between the two, particularly since Magnum Hunter filed for Bankruptcy protection on Tuesday. Continue reading