When a Dividend Increase Really Isn’t

As a kid I enjoyed a good riddle every now and again but as the years went by thought I’d outgrown them to a large degree.  Until now.  One of the companies in my portfolio announced a dividend.  In reviewing the announcement (specifically the SEC 6-K filing), I noticed the dividend amounted to an increase of 13.16%.  Not shabby – in fact it exceeds the average of my portfolio (12.08% current).  So imagine my surprise to find the amount to be credited resulted in a 15.23% reduction!  Hmm … kind of blows away the increase, doesn’t it?   Of course I had to investigate – it appears like that’s what I seem to do.

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Jan 2018 Update

The market came out of the chutes and barely looked back this month, the catalysts being the realization of the tax plan’s impact on corporate earnings and few earnings reports being significant disappointments.  The lower tax rates started trickling  into paychecks (average about 3.5%) but the average gas price nationwide increased by roughly 5% primarily due to the weakness in the US dollar  (caused in part by the prospects of increased deficits from the tax plan that haven’t been offset by jobs, productivity or GDP gains yet).  At least we can watch commercials touting unrealized benefits even though it is way too early for any tangible impact to  be realized.  Kind of makes me wonder a little.  For the month, the S&P index increased by 5.62%% while my portfolio value increased by merely 3.81% putting me behind by 1.81% to start the year. Continue reading

March 2017 Update

March brought us the longest DOW losing streak in five and a half years on the heels of the first legislative defeat of the Trump administration.  The talking heads then moved their focus to the “end of the earnings recession”.  Frankly, I think as long as the US dollar remains strong, earnings will continue to suffer – except for domestically focused companies.  As a leading indicator to this thesis, I would point to the slowing growth in dividend increases as a proxy.  Regardless, the S&P closed the month down .04% while my portfolio rebounded ending the month up 3.3%.  At the end of the first quarter, I lead the S&P by 1.35%.

Headlines impacting my portfolio:

  • 3/1 – SQ buys OrderAhead (pvt)
  • 3/6 – FMBI acquires Premier Asset Mgmt, LLC
  • 3/9 – BR acquires Message Automation, Ltd.
  • 3/13 – BUSE acquiring MDLM
  • 3/16 – MMM acquiring Scott Safety from JCI
  • 3/16 – Fed lowers barriers for <$100B bank mergers
  • 3/20 – UL reviewing sale of spreads line
  • 3/23 – BLK buys 5% stake in NTDOY
  • 3/27 – BLL sells paint can line to BWAY Holding
  • 3/27 – DST buys remaining UK JVs from STT
  • 3/27 – SGBK to merge with HOMB
  • 3/28 – KO and KOF close on AdeS line purchase from UL
  • 3/29 – MA acquires NuData Security
  • 3/30 – CM increases offer for PVTB

Portfolio Updates:

  • Added to BCE
  • Added to SQ
  • Added to KO
  • Added to TD
  • Initiated position in AKO.B

Dividends:

  • March delivered an increase of 9.15% over March 2016.  2.24% of this increase is attributable to purchases with the remaining 97.76% a result of dividend increases.  The Y/Y comparison is a little distorted as four companies shifted pay dates and one special dividend did not reoccur.
  • March had an increase of 6.44% over the prior quarter.  This was primarily due to a pay date shift as a result of a merger.
  • Declared dividend increases averaged 7.75% with 36.42% of my portfolio delivering at least one raise (1 cut – YUM).
  • YTD Dividends received were 27.1% of total 2016 dividends.  If the current run rate is maintained would exceed 2016 around October 15th – particularly with most of my semi-annual or interim/final cycles paying during the next quarter.

Spinoffs:

The MET spin (Brighthouse Financial – BHF) remains pending.

Mergers:

Agrium/POT, JNS/HGG.L and SGBK.HOMB remain pending

Recent Buy – AKO.B

ako

Keeping with my Coca-Cola bottler strategy, yesterday I added a new holding to my portfolio.  Embotelladora Andina S.A. is based in Chile with territory covering Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay in addition to Chile.  Their product line includes Coca-Cola products in addition to bottling and distributing outside brands including Amstel, Dos Equis (XX), Heineken and others.  They have an integrated operation, meaning they manufacture the bottles, cases and caps used in their bottling operation.

Andina has two share classes, the A shares carry greater voting power while the B shares pay a higher dividend.  As I don’t expect to accumulate enough shares to impact the board, I chose the higher dividend.  The shares are traded on the NYSE as an ADR administered by Bank of New York Mellon (BK), another of my holdings.  The ADR ratio is 6 shares of Andina-B (Chilean exchange) to 1 AKO.B (NYSE).

A dividend is paid almost quarterly (Feb, Jun, Sep, Nov) but is variable as the cycle is Provisorio/Adicional.  The company’s goal is to pay approximately 35% of earnings to shareholders.  The TTM for the ADR is $.70 which translates into a current yield of 2.88% at my $24.25 purchase price.  The forward (12 month) yield would be about 3.1% depending on actual declarations and the future exchange rate.

A also added to my TD holdings making it a full satellite position (1.5% of portfolio dividends) due to weakness (can you say Wells Fargo?).