Old Fashioned Horse Race

the horses rounded the bend and started down the home stretch. “Look! Look! See his stride now!”

Black Mack by Neil Dawson in The Canadian Magazine, Vol. 29, Oct. 1907

In a followup to my last post, I decided to increase my position in Church & Dwight (CHD) this week which I posited was a possibility with the current weakness.  I’m assuming that a floor has been reached following Spruce Point’s short campaign and some insider selling reported. Quarterly filings also revealed some increases in long positions by entities much larger than Spruce Point.  With the price decline now at roughly 10%, I thought it prudent to begin accumulating some more. Its’ position in my portfolio was about 0.2% – and now about 0.22%, there’s still plenty of room to add until my 1% limit is met. This is one I’ll be keeping an eye on prior to there next ex-dividend date.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for eight straight days, I believe largely on the heels of positive-sounding trade news – particularly on President Trump’s acknowledgement that he would at least consider an interim trade deal.  This may be short-lived if his base considers this a retreat from the all-or-nothing position that was held stating the tariffs will force China to conform with established standards. Perhaps the message to the base would be, “See how easy trade wars are to win when the goal posts are moved.

With the yield curve steepening, some pressure was off of financials contributing to my portfolio attaining a new record high as well, eclipsing the prior high set in July.  Let’s see if this can continue through month-end as there are some issues like the Fed meeting and the attack on Saudi oil to consider.

This is the time of year that I begin the fine tuning of the portfolio strategy as there are limited possibilities remaining to impact dividend results as the final quarter of the year looms on the horizon.  Considering that ten of my companies have no more ammunition available until next year, the pickings will become increasingly slim until we turn our focus to the new year. Plus there’s a delicate balancing act to perform with the cash allocation as October has historically been a volatile month.  Keeping a little dry powder in place could also be a viable strategy. Just some random ideas that are framing my thought process a little.

So to come full circle, we’re rounding the bend and coming down the home stretch. Being a nose ahead of the index is something I’m not accustomed to as generally I’m several lengths ahead. Which is why my final assessment this year (about two weeks away) will be crucial. Here’s hoping your week is fruitful!