Gamblin’ Man

Lord, I was born a gamblin’ man

David Pratter (parody of Allman Brothers Ramblin’ Man)

I’m not sure what it is about October that causes some vicious swings in the market but this year remained true to form.   When viewed through the prism of percentages the two day drop was merely a blip,  for newer investors I’m sure it was gut wrenching all the same.  While the President was quick to cast blame on the Fed,  this is the same man  that was quick to criticize the Fed for keeping rates artificially low.  Others cast the net a little wider to include trade tensions with China.  Kind of like saying , “Look at the man in the mirror first!”  We don’t have to look any further than PPG’s pre-announcement to identify the culprits: Accelerating raw materials and transportation costs, slowing China demand, weakening auto paint demand and a stronger US dollar.  I wouldn’t be surprised if additional surprises are in store as more companies announce.

What does surprise me a little is the fact that costs like PPG is incurring has not yet worked into the CPI or PPI numbers yet.    One pundit mentioned inventories were being drained so the full increase will be felt in the future – unless a China agreement is on the short-term horizon.  Perhaps …

I was able to capitalize on the rout a little on Thursday by adding to seven positions – notably the foreign ETFs along with BOKF and CL.  Unless markets go haywire again, I have only one more purchase on tap for this month.

To come full circle to the title of this post, our friend Jim Cramer is in the process of releasing his selections for 2019.  He’s doing this in the format of Power Rankings which is a unique approach but one I wouldn’t touch with a ten foot pole.  The reason: there is already an embedded mindset of investing being a form of gambling.  Cramer says, “we’re rolling out power rankings for each sector of the stock market, just like how gamblers use power rankings to gauge the strength of football teams”.  Hmm … but I will keep an eye on these selections.  Mysteriously they stopped after three sectors were released, perhaps related to the market selloff?  All I can say is during week 1, 11 of his 15 selections were under water … so what was advertised as a one week rollout is now on hold?  Perhaps market conditions weren’t conducive for his track record?  Any way, more to come on this front I’m sure 🙂

2 thoughts on “Gamblin’ Man

  1. Ah Jim Cramer! We don’t get much (any) coverage of him here in Australia, or anyone like him, which I think is a very positive thing! On the rare occasions I’ve caught him on US TV I must admit I am at least entertained 🙂

    ‘Power Ranking’ sounds exciting but can’t see how it means anythiing??

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  2. Perhaps I’m getting old but I prefer the no-nonsense lay it out there and let me mull it over approach. But his current theory is that selecting “hot stocks” with room to run should be a winning approach due to the “Fed-mandated slowdown”. His analogy is a gambler using “Power Rankings” (US football) – a kind of tip sheet. His accuracy (about 44%) should speak for itself.

    Can’t quibble on the entertainment value. Which is why I’ll spend part of the weekend adding a sub-menu to this site laying out one pick per sector side-by-side … mine vs Cramer vs MSCI vs anyone else who wants to play along. 🙂

    Appreciate the comment!


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