Rolling Unabridged Update #2

The second month of the Rolling Unabridged Monthly Portfolio (RUMP) is in the books with the results posted a few days ago.  A few were added, a couple removed and one renamed (Mr Free at 33).  No major surprises revealed themselves while the update cycle settled into the 6-9 month desired lag.  Following are the highlights, findings, questions and issues identified round.

Blog Composition

Bloggers with online portfolios that are not dormant (DivGro’s definition) numbered 288 this month.  Roughly 20 were added and three dropped due to dormancy, one by making their portfolio private and one by becoming subscription only.  The Netherlands earned their own tab as 12 blogs are identified with this country.

Data

As alluded to earlier, there were no major changes in the monthly rankings.  The biggest mover was AAPL up three slots.  My guess is bloggers identified it as a compelling addition with the price pullback earlier this year.  If correct, the reward came this month on the heels of the Samsung (SSNLF) issue.  The same companies still comprise the top 15 month over month.

Although the dataset is not yet seasoned, I see some potential for areas to investigate further.  For example, I noticed CAT dropping a little last month to 31 from 27.  This month chatter was elevated regarding payout ratio, cyclical earnings, strong dollar, etc.  Now it could be a coincidence but it is one more area worthy of investigation going forward.

A Deeper Dive

In February, Adam at I Want to Retire Soon added a trend analysis to his weekly reports.  Although interesting, I’m unsure as to the value for two reasons; 1) The market may not lend itself specific buying windows; and 2) Scoring is based on purchase frequency.

But data being data, I might be able to identify a correlation between our two methodologies.  This requires removal of his trend curve to enable measurement of his weekly inputs versus my monthly (with three month lag).  A clearer picture may emerge over the next 2-4 months, but following is the initial finding:

COMPARISON

IWTRS (March 2016) SR (Jan 2016)
TICKER TREND CUR RNK LST RNK CHNG
DIS 1 23 29 6
WFC 2 17 26 9
AMGN 3 79 101 22
BNS 4 22 20 -2
PFE 5 36 47 11
RDS 6 26 25 -1
NOTE: Variance could be attributable to normalization process, lack of sufficient data or failure to identify a correlation..
ANALYSIS: A minimum of 3-4 months data is necessary to identify a relationship – if any.
COMMENTARY: Although the baseline data is fluid, the sample size should mitigate this issue. Distortions could be present based on buys or sales of partial positions.
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