Back in 2014, with a portion of my portfolio I embarked on a strategy of buying Regional Banks and collecting a dividend (although typically a little smaller) while waiting for a potential merger to occur. In early 2015, this strategy was validated by Lanny (Dividend Diplomats) with his CZNC purchase. At that time I had 41 positions with a 6-1-2 result. Meaning, I had a 21.9% success ratio of picking merger candidates, with 2 being reverse mergers (I get screwed on the premium), and one (2.3%) with a full premium.
Now I can’t say that I was overly thrilled with the outcome of the first year, but Lanny thought it was decent. So I did a little research and stretched into some smaller banks. I bought a group and couldn’t decide between SUSQ and MNRK as the final candidate. I chose MNRK only to see BBT later pick up SUSQ. Six months later I placed an order to buy NPBC only to see the price spike in pre-market trading. I switched my order to PWOD only to find BBT beat me again. But it did validate the theory that I’m getting closer to the ‘sweet spot’.
So the results for 2015 are in and my 49 positions produced a 16-3-0 result. Meaning my selection of merger candidates improved to 38.7% but more important is receiving the premium on 3 (6.1%). So now we’re seeing some results closer to my expectations!
I’m not certain how long this strategy will work and I’m under no illusions otherwise. But I do expect it to continue through 2016 and will finalize this years entries probably around tax time.